Forces Shaping Health System Capacity

Competitive, economic, social, technological, and regulatory forces are putting new pressures on healthcare capacity. Health systems that adapt to these challenges can unlock efficiency, improve access, and drive sustainable growth.

Staffing Forces

By 2052, nearly 84 million Americans will be over 65—almost double the number from a decade ago. At the same time, the ratio of healthcare workers to seniors is shrinking, dropping from 4:1 in 2010 to just 2.9:1 by 2030. Seeing a growing senior population with fewer providers to meet demand, can lead to an increased strain on health systems.

The Opportunity:

Invest in care orchestration, AI-driven efficiency, and digital tools to maximize workforce capacity and ensure patients get the right care at the right time.

Network-wide imbalances are causing delays in care and cutting into revenue.

Patients

Patients wait 26 days on average to access a primary care doctor

Providers

Some providers have more availability while others are overwhelmed

Modalities

Virtual care queues sit empty as urgent care waiting rooms bulge at the seams

Locations

One location struggles with massive scheduling backlogs, while another has empty slots

5-Point Framework for Smarter Capacity Management

Based on best practices of leading health systems, this framework can help your organization pinpoint provider imbalances, find patient access gaps, and effectively balance provider supply with patient demand. 

Step 1

Define your data needs, identify bottlenecks and find pockets of availability

Begin by assessing which capacity data you already track, and which types you need to track. As you conduct this assessment, ask:

What are our key data needs?

Can we accurately analyze patient demand, provider availability, scheduling patterns, and utilization rates? This means connecting multiple data sources, often governed by multiple people and disparate processes. Sources could include: EHR, practice management system, patient portal, insurance eligibility/verification system, provider directory/credentialing system, telehealth platform, and patient engagement/reminder systems.

What’s blocking our view of capacity?

Seek to identify any fragmented data sources, integration challenges, and other items that inhibit visibility across care settings. Health system data is often a mess of outdated and disorganized sources. Knowing the basics can be challenging: who works for your system, their specialties, addresses and phone numbers.

Which technologies will help us the most?

Assess your technology gaps and start investigating advanced analytics, predictive modeling, AI-powered dashboards and other tools that can help you surface actionable insights.

Improve care access by routing to care venues with available resources

A full view of capacity data enables smart resource allocation, ensuring timely, efficient care while achieving health system goals. For example, patients with low acuity concerns can be routed to same day care options.

Reduce overcrowding in the ED and urgent care

by using AI and data intelligence to assess patient needs and guide patients to the most appropriate care option.

Enable providers to practice at the top of their licenses

by routing appropriate cases to specialists and assigning routine visits to advanced practice clinicians.

Decrease provider burnout

by allowing providers to right-size their schedule and incorporate a mix of acuity levels into their workflows. 

Step 3

Use real-time data to scale resources in alignment with predictable, seasonal trends

Predict anticipated spikes in patient demand—and respond appropriately—using data as your guide.

Analyze historical trends

to ramp up for flu season,  school-year exams, or insurance coverage cycles.

Allocate staff resources proactively

by adjusting staffing levels in advance to meet peak demand.

Forecast the future

Incorporate forecasting tools to simulate scenarios and ensure your organization can meet unexpected surges.

Pursue workforce optimization

Right-size provider schedules, ease staffing crunches, and reduce staff burnout by achieving better balance.

Visualize the provider spectrum

overburdened, optimized, and underutilized—and their implications on care delivery.

Assess the market impact of burnout

by comparing the cost of hiring new providers versus the cost of the tools you’ll need to optimize your current providers. Replacing a physician in a healthcare system can cost between $250,000 and $1 million or more.

Add up the bottom-line impact

Calculate how much you can save by redistributing just 5% of underutilized providers to address care gaps, improve access, and reduce unnecessary costs.

Step 5

Respond to changing behaviors and enhance the patient experience

Capacity maximization is the key to a better patient experience, allowing your health system to:

Retain current patients and attract net-new patients

by offering a more convenient and transparent booking experience that better meets their needs.

Surface real-time appointment availability

across providers, locations, and modalities, making care more convenient and boosting patient satisfaction and outcomes

Offer self-scheduling and best-fit care options

at every digital front door touchpoint, accelerating access, shortening wait times, and reducing no-show rates